Okay the first 2 parts of the Title are factually correct, the 3rd & probably the most important is an assumption using basic Math.

Both Rotherham & Brighton are on 34 points having played 32 games.  So if I remember what Mrs Satisfield taught me at Holy Family School, New Springs, using basic statistics, they should amass around 48/49 points.  For those mathematicians, that’s (34 ÷ 32) x 46 games = 48.875, hence 48 or 49 points depending on how you’ll split your hairs!

So 14 games to gain 24 points, let’s call it 25 because of goal difference, that’s a frightening 1.785 points a game!  Frightening in that it’s took 32 games to get the first 25 & that at just 0.781 points a game.

So breaking the 25 points down, that’s in theory 8 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats to hit 50 points.  Can it be done, of course it can, nothing is impossible & Wigan have done this very recently.  If you remember February 2012, Wigan had played 24 with just 3 wins, 16 points, miles away from safety, sound familiar?

Their last 14 games of that season, brought them 8 wins, 3 draws & just 3 defeats, including wins against Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United & of course the mighty Bolton Wanderers.

I would imagine back then we all believe the Championship was beckoning, I know I left the Swansea match in March after 60 minutes, arriving home before the final whistle had been blown, swearing relegation was a certainty.

Okay I know, I know, I sound bloody daft, but I have to cling to something, that for me is Mathematics, from the remaining 14 games can we get 8 wins, what do we need to do?

Looking at the remaining games; let me list them, also showing their current league position & form from their last 6 games.

  • 24th Feb H Cardiff – 17th & 4pts
  • 28th Feb A Blackpool – 24th & 5pts
  • 4th Mar A Norwich – 5th & 13pts
  • 7th Mar H Leeds – 11th & 15pts
  • 14th Mar A Rotherham – 21st & 8pts
  • 17th Mar H Watford – 6th & 12pts
  • 21st Mar H Bolton – 18th & 4pts
  • 3rd Apr A Middlesbrough – 2nd & 13pts
  • 6th Apr H Derby – 1st & 14pts
  • 10th Apr A Fulham – 19th & 5pts
  • 14th Apr A Millwall – 22nd & 8pts
  • 18th Apr H Brighton – 20th & 8pts
  • 25th Apr H Wolves – 8th & 8pts
  • 2nd May A Brentford – 7th & 9pts

So if you’re still with me, if we go with the least form team & league position we need the points from the teams I’ve highlighted in bold.  Yep it means finishing with 5 on the bounce, but hey it’s what we need to do.

You may call me delusional, but let’s just see, at least now I know what needs to be done & that’ll start hopefully with a win against Cardiff on Farmer Dave’s field come Tuesday.

I can be but Mr Brightside & to add some apt music:

[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGdGFtwCNBE” title=”The%20Killer” width=”420″ height=”255″]

Also I do realise we may go on this fantastic run starting Tuesday night, but if Brighton & Rotherham do too, yes my bloody Mathematics counts for sod all.  But there are other Math theories that state not everyone can win above us, it’s called the ‘Denial Theory’; I’ll leave it with you Mr Flowers.

#believe

Andy

 

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