Okay the first 2 parts of the Title are factually correct, the 3rd & probably the most important is an assumption using basic Math.
Both Rotherham & Brighton are on 34 points having played 32 games. So if I remember what Mrs Satisfield taught me at Holy Family School, New Springs, using basic statistics, they should amass around 48/49 points. For those mathematicians, that’s (34 ÷ 32) x 46 games = 48.875, hence 48 or 49 points depending on how you’ll split your hairs!
So 14 games to gain 24 points, let’s call it 25 because of goal difference, that’s a frightening 1.785 points a game! Frightening in that it’s took 32 games to get the first 25 & that at just 0.781 points a game.
So breaking the 25 points down, that’s in theory 8 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats to hit 50 points. Can it be done, of course it can, nothing is impossible & Wigan have done this very recently. If you remember February 2012, Wigan had played 24 with just 3 wins, 16 points, miles away from safety, sound familiar?
Their last 14 games of that season, brought them 8 wins, 3 draws & just 3 defeats, including wins against Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United & of course the mighty Bolton Wanderers.
I would imagine back then we all believe the Championship was beckoning, I know I left the Swansea match in March after 60 minutes, arriving home before the final whistle had been blown, swearing relegation was a certainty.
Okay I know, I know, I sound bloody daft, but I have to cling to something, that for me is Mathematics, from the remaining 14 games can we get 8 wins, what do we need to do?
Looking at the remaining games; let me list them, also showing their current league position & form from their last 6 games.
- 24th Feb H Cardiff – 17th & 4pts
- 28th Feb A Blackpool – 24th & 5pts
- 4th Mar A Norwich – 5th & 13pts
- 7th Mar H Leeds – 11th & 15pts
- 14th Mar A Rotherham – 21st & 8pts
- 17th Mar H Watford – 6th & 12pts
- 21st Mar H Bolton – 18th & 4pts
- 3rd Apr A Middlesbrough – 2nd & 13pts
- 6th Apr H Derby – 1st & 14pts
- 10th Apr A Fulham – 19th & 5pts
- 14th Apr A Millwall – 22nd & 8pts
- 18th Apr H Brighton – 20th & 8pts
- 25th Apr H Wolves – 8th & 8pts
- 2nd May A Brentford – 7th & 9pts
So if you’re still with me, if we go with the least form team & league position we need the points from the teams I’ve highlighted in bold. Yep it means finishing with 5 on the bounce, but hey it’s what we need to do.
You may call me delusional, but let’s just see, at least now I know what needs to be done & that’ll start hopefully with a win against Cardiff on Farmer Dave’s field come Tuesday.
I can be but Mr Brightside & to add some apt music:
[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGdGFtwCNBE” title=”The%20Killer” width=”420″ height=”255″]
Also I do realise we may go on this fantastic run starting Tuesday night, but if Brighton & Rotherham do too, yes my bloody Mathematics counts for sod all. But there are other Math theories that state not everyone can win above us, it’s called the ‘Denial Theory’; I’ll leave it with you Mr Flowers.
You can find the latest episode of the Pie at Night Podcast on ITunes, on Stitcher or by searching for us in your favourite podcast App. You could also pop along to our AudiBoom site where you can find all our episodes. Or you could just use the player below. Give it a go, we might go on a bit, but you might enjoy it.